How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he planned to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs White House without results

The on-again, off-again summit is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get Russia done," he declared.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to move the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, admitting that ending the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Sherry Roth
Sherry Roth

Energy economist with over a decade of experience in market analysis and sustainable power solutions.